Sunday, May 23, 2010

Escaping the market turmoil

So far, May has been a month of total market mayhem. Everything that should make investing fun, such as making money, being right, seeing the fundamentals be reflected in market prices etc etc, has been absent. Losing money for your investors is no fun at all, especially if you know that the primary reason is because government intervention keeps all the markets highly correlated and throws them into and out of turmoil without mercy. Government intervention is a pain in the behind, and there's nowt we can do about it except watch with horror as they bang their collective regulatory heads into the political wall again and again with various ineffectual stop-gaps.

The really bad news is that all this "policy with hindsight" will serve only to increase the volatility of markets in the future as people are led further into the tunnel of false security that politicians love to lead their constituents down. The reality is, people in public office shouldn't be fixing the financial markets because they really have erroneous understandings of what the real problems are. It's a really big mess, and it's getting bigger every day. I hate to think how messy things are going to get before they finally improve...

On a positive note, there are still people gambling their livelihoods away in the slot machines of Las Vegas. Human foibles are alive and well. A hedge fund conference took me there last week to listen to an impressive array of speakers including Bill Clinton, Mitt Romney, Michael Milken, Nouriel Roubini, Ken Griffin etc etc. General conclusion: no one has any idea what's going to happen, and the slower you speak the more people seem to listen (Bill is very good at this).

On Thursday, we are taking a long weekend to go sailing in the Caribbean. This time from St Marteen/St Martin for a jolly jaunt around Anguilla and St Barts, a la figure-o-eight. Time to reflect on 2010 so far and what a messy year it has been. Assuming we encounter no oil, no tropical storms, and no politicians - it should bring some reprieve and an end to what has been a rough month.



No comments:

Post a Comment